Key Summary
- Alexei Navalny, Putin’s prominent opponent, dies in a harsh Russian prison, sparking global outrage.
- Navalny’s death draws attention to Putin’s authoritarian regime’s treatment of political dissent.
- Sanctions imposed by the US and EU in response highlight international condemnation but may not sway Putin’s power grip.
- Russia’s economy faces sanctions repercussions, with GDP shrinkage and increased immigration.
- Navalny’s death underscores the struggle for democracy and human rights against authoritarian regimes.
Putin’s most formidable opponent, Alexei Navalny dies in Russia’s IK-3 penal colony, located north of the Arctic Circle. This former Stalin-era labor camp is known for its terrible conditions and treatment of prisoners. Navalny was serving a three-decade sentence and was recently moved to the “Polar Wolf” prison, a “Special Regime” colony, which is the harshest grade of Russian prisons. Two months later Navalny is pronounced dead by the Federal Penitentiary Service. Medical professionals were alerted and arrived on the scene and attributed his death to “sudden death syndrome” (SDS). This condition is not a formal cause of death, which refers to an umbrella categorization of unforseen deaths. This categorization clearly raises the issue of basic principles of imprisonment treatment in Russia. Despite Navalny’s death sending a global shocks, mainly to western countries, this behavior is not unheard of when it comes to the treatment of leaders of Putin’s opposition.
Many other Putin opposition advocates, which include politicians, journalists, and outspoken citizens have been killed, jailed, or are in exile abroad. This list list includes; Putin opposition politician, Khodorkovsky. Russian chess legend, Garry Kasparov. Former Russian Prime Minister, Mikhail Kasyanov. Finally, “Russian traitor” and Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza (AP). Navalny is known for being Putin’s biggest opponent in recent years as he has been a public critic of Putin, founded a non-governmental organization called the Anti-Corruption Foundation which repeatedly investigated alleged corruption charges against government officials, and coalesced politicians to run against local communist leaders. He was also repeatedly poisoned by, what many believe to be, Russian operatives. His encouragement of changing the political landscape of Russia through grassroots elections made him dangerous and an existential threat to Putin’s power. The Russian government never admitted to the attempted poisoning and quickly imprisoned Navalny as soon as he returned from Germany.
Although the Russian government holds elections, they’re considered a “consolidated authoritarian regime” according to the Freedom House Index. This is due to the President’s concentration of authoritarian power, a submissive judiciary, government controlled media, and a ruling party dominated legislature. These factors along with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led Navalny and his NGO to continue advocating against Putin and his obedient party. Russia’s previous Presidential elections were held in 2018 and occur every 6 years. Navalny’s death occurring less than a month before Russia’s elections is a timely and fortunate death for Putin despite Navalny serving a long-term sentence. Navalny’s death has focused eyes from around the world on Russia’s elections despite other major elections around the world including; Mexico’s, Taiwan’s, the United States, and the Philippines.
Russia’s diplomatic relations have suffered a major contraction since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2 years ago. The continuation of fearmongering through the jailing of political opponents has had further implications for Russia’s relations, especially with the United States. President Biden has decided to impose over 500 more sanctions on Russia due to their continued presence in Ukraine and the death of Alexei Navalny. These sanctions target Russia’s payment system, Mir, government-funded institutions, and the officials involved in Navalny’s imprisonment. These sanctions stretch further than Russia, effectively sanctioning China, Vietnam, and Liechtenstein. Despite these additional sanctions and the subsequent ones imposed by the European Union, they are unlikely to affect Russia’s economy as they are the most sanctioned country in the world. The United States and European Union’s attempts at imposing more costs on Putin have not led to retraction from Russia’s conquest of Ukraine. Instead, the sanctions have reportedly led to a shrinkage of Russia’s GDP in 2022, which has been offset by 2.1% growth in 2023 and projected growth for 2024. The sanctions have increased immigration out of Russia and decreased healthcare spending, which has been cut to allocate more money to military spending.
The implementation of more sanctions on Russia appears to be more of a symbolic response to Navalny’s death. Ultimately, it serves as a message that the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union won’t stand for Putin’s oppression of political opponents. However, these sanctions are also unlikely to affect Putin’s decision-making when it comes to maintaining power. 2024 being the year of elections, it is vital that the United States response to Russia is heard in countries that have a choice between democratic and authoritarian candidates. Continued pressures on Russia’s payment system, Mir, is a good starting point, however, this response has more profound consequences on Russia’s public than on the oligarchs and on Putin. Further support of Ukraine, through the “Defending Borders, Defending Democracies Act” could effectively “porcupine” the country and impose further military costs on Russia. However, it is still hard to see Russia retreating unless Ukraine obtains drastic increases in military capabilities.
Navalny’s death showcases Putin’s chokehold on power. It also displays the concerns over authoritarian regimes and their lack of humanitarian rules and laws, especially with Russia’s prison system. It is unlikely that Russia will experience a regime change come this election cycle, but we forecast that Navalny’s NGO, the anti-corruption foundation, will continue to promote grassroots politicians to slowly build pro-democratic and transparent coalitions.
Author: Tucker Henry