As of Wednesday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced to the members of parliament and to the world that Somalia has agreed to a new defense deal with Turkey. Though some details of the agreement have yet to be revealed to the public, it was proclaimed that Turkey will be providing training and equipment to the Somali navy as a result of the recent endeavors by Ethiopia to secure access to the sea through Somaliland. Additionally, Turkey will be supporting the nation’s sea assets in order to provide security and safety among its waters from a variety of issues such as piracy, terrorism, and “foreign interference.” After receiving approval from the council of ministers, the Prime Minister of Somalia Hamza Abdi Barre described this defense deal as a historic day for the Horn of Africa nation. This deal is important to Somalia as it not only benefits them nationally, but internationally as they align themselves with Turkey. Nevertheless, this recent deal comes as a result of rising tensions between Somalia and the two allied states of Ethiopia and Somaliland.
On January 1st, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland that would provide Ethiopia with access to the Gulf of Aden in return for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. As the most populated landlocked nation in the world, this technically non binding agreement would be incredibly significant for Ethiopia. However, given that Somalia still considers Somaliland to be part of its nation’s territory, the granting of naval access is an action that Somalia says they are prepared to go to war over. When the agreement was first made at the beginning of the year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had denied any fears regarding an impending conflict, stating that his nation had no intention to enter a war with Somalia. On the flip side, the president of Somalia reportedly claimed that there were ulterior motives as senior officers from the military of Ethiopia were “preparing the ground” of Somaliland for annexation.
Though the process of enabling Ethiopia to create a naval port in the Red Sea has agitated already tense relations between the various nations, it is a significant step for Somaliland. While Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991, it has been unable to act with international legitimacy as no existing country has recognized its sovereignty. This has increased the difficulty and length of the building process of the nation as they have been forced to start “bottom-up”. Regardless, the nation is geographically strong as a coastal territory and has maintained a somewhat stable democracy that has contributed to a rise in interest from major foreign investors. Furthermore, Somaliland has not only been able to establish its own government with a directly elected president, but also a constitution, currency, army, and even a passport. Thus, even after over thirty years of non legitimate independence, the state has been operating independently and maintains a population of around 5.7 million.
Conversely, given that Ethiopia lost its coastal access to the Red Sea after the 1993 secession of Eritrea, this agreement with Somaliland will be extremely beneficial. Since the secession, Ethiopia has used Djibouti to transport approximately 95 percent of imports and exports for the nation. This act of transportation has cost Ethiopia more than $1 billion a year in port fees. The deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia would allow the country to build both a naval base and a commercial port on the Gulf of Aden which is geographically significant as it is an economic hub for the region. Furthermore, this would enable Ethiopia to establish itself as a hegemonic power, enhancing the fear of Somalia and being a contributing factor for the country’s new relationship with Turkey.
As new deals are struck, many worry about Somalia’s threat of war against Ethiopia. This would not only be costly in terms of lives and money, but could worsen conditions within the nation. With an estimated 50 percent of children experiencing malnutrition and a rise in terrorist acts by extremist groups such as Al-Shabab, a war is one of the last things the country should be doing. The country would be better off strengthening the capacity of government institutions in order to aid in the development of the country. While this is no easy or simple feat, it would provide structure within the country and enable the government to implement various economic and social initiatives.
Ultimately, Somalia’s new deal with Turkey will provide security and defense to the former and power in the Red Sea for the latter. Though the motivator for the agreement is to prevent Ethiopia from gaining sea access through Somaliland, many hope that it will bring economic growth through the increased protection of the Gulf Aden. That being said, with Somalia threatening war against Ethiopia, NGF will continue to analyze the situation and any new developments that may occur.
Author: Ella Powers
