Since Prigozhin’s death, many have been wondering what the future of the Wagner group entails. Most of their funding came from Russia (almost $2 billion). Most of their activities were centered in Africa because of Russia’s interest in the continent. Now without a leader, their forces are spread throughout, and high-ranking Wagner officials with good enough clout can take leadership of those groups. Or Putin will be the one to re-centralize the group under his leadership.
Photo Credits: kremlin.ru
Since the Wagner Group is most active in Africa, it will be hard for Putin to centralize control. Putin cannot use a show of force on Wagner in Africa unless he wants to seek attention from the international community. African nations will of course call out Russian forces and force Putin’s hand. So the likely end game is that Wagner splits into multiple different groups.
There are plenty of reasons for this. One is because each group has territory that they call their own and will not be willing to give it up. Two, Africa is full of rich natural resources that the groups will want to obtain to continue funding their operations. Three, most of the Wagner Group does not care about Putin and Russia’s goals, they simply want to be left alone. If this is the case, which is likely, stability in Africa might dwindle.
But at the same time, in order to fund their operations, the Wagner Group can help African nations defend their lands against terrorists and potential coups. The use of Wagner groups may increase if their allegiance is aligned to Russia. Coups have increased across the continent along with radical extremism. The Wagner Group can help provide security and even take down extremist groups if the right price is handed to them. The chaos will ensue if opposition leaders get a hold of the information and violence between the opposition and the Wagner Group will ensue. Dictators and authoritarian leaders can get an advantage with the Wagner Group.
Africa is going through turmoil as it is, and the Wagner Group can create more damage. The United States and its allies need to work together to get the proper intelligence on the Wagner Group’s current operations to make sure Wagner is not exploiting African nations. Unfortunately, not much more can be done to stop them. The United States and its allies can work with African nations to help respond to the Wagner Group’s influence, but it is up to African nations to take the initiative in these matters.
Author: Joshua Cheath
